Strategy
/Users/heikki/Documents/polymarket_data/STRATEGY_SPEC_CONV_alwayslatetotheparty.md
mechanism statement: [DATA] The prior recon `/Users/heikki/Documents/polymarket_data/WALLET_DEEP_RECON_alwayslatetotheparty.md` identifies this wallet as a Neg-Risk multi-outcome conversion arbitrage winner: SPLIT and CONVERSION cashflows are both around $7.3M, the wallet was positive on every active day in the recon window, and the dominant family was World Cup winner markets. [DATA] The strategy dossier `/Users/heikki/Documents/polymar entry rules: [DATA] Source signature: complete-set arbitrage across multi-outcome Neg-Risk fields, especially large event families where exactly one leg can resolve true. [LOGIC] Candidate event universe: - Include only Polymarket Neg-Risk event groups where legs are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive enough for a complete-set conversion. - Require at least 4 active legs in the event group. - Require public market dat exit rules: [LOGIC] Preferred exit is immediate paper conversion of a complete set to $1.00 face value when the simulated fill model says all legs filled. [LOGIC] If a complete set cannot be assembled under pessimistic fills, record a missed or partial opportunity and do not carry simulated inventory. [LOGIC] No directional hold-to-resolution exit is allowed in the first paper bot. This keeps the test about conversion arbitrage, sizing: [LOGIC] Paper bankroll: `paper_bankroll_usd=10000`. [LOGIC] Per-event paper notional cap: `max_event_notional_usd=500`. [LOGIC] Total open simulated exposure cap: `max_total_open_notional_usd=2000`. [LOGIC] Per-leg size is the minimum fillable size across all legs after applying the pessimistic book-depth haircut. If any leg cannot fill, no paper trade is recorded. [LOGIC] Do not compound paper size during the first copy-mode: [LOGIC] D6 copy-mode decision: independent rule implementation. [LOGIC] Fill mirroring is rejected for the first paper bot because it imports the source wallet's latency, source decay, and unavailable intent. The rule can be implemented from public event grouping, prices, size, and conversion mechanics. placement: [LOGIC] D11 placement: VPS paper daemon. [LOGIC] Paper-only. No live CLOB/signer/orders, no deposits, no funds, no credentials, and no customer-facing action. [LOGIC] The daemon should consume live public market data, run the complete-set scanner, and write simulated opportunities/fills to `wid_ops.db.paper_results`.