Strategy
/Users/heikki/Documents/polymarket_data/STRATEGY_SPEC_CONV_XAE12Archangel_fed_baskets.md
Mechanism Statement: - [DATA] XAE's full-source tape contains 73,174 rows for the source wallet, including `TRADE=71209`, `CONVERSION=705`, `MERGE=165`, `SPLIT=7`, and `REDEEM=598`. - [DATA] Repeated Fed Decision event families show the same lifecycle shape: individual rate-path outcome trades plus large umbrella `Fed Decision` conversion rows, with merge/split/redeem residual handling. - [LOGIC] The copyable mechanism is conversion-bask Sizing: - [LOGIC] Size from verified paper edge and liquidity, not from XAE's historical ROI or peak-capital multiple. - [LOGIC] v1 maximum paper exposure: `500 USDC` per event family and `1500 USDC` total across all open Fed families. - [LOGIC] v1 maximum leg imbalance: no single leg can exceed 60% of family paper exposure unless the conversion identity proves that imbalance is required and still fee-true positive. - [LOGIC Copy-Mode Decision: - [LOGIC] Fill mirroring is rejected. The paper strategy must not follow XAE's future trades or any other wallet's fills. - [LOGIC] Approved copy mode is independent public-rule paper execution: scan public Fed Decision markets, map linked predicates, compute basket arithmetic, and paper-enter only when the rule passes. - [LOGIC] If the paper scanner cannot reconstruct rule text and linked outcomes without source-wal Placement: - [DATA] Placement is paper-only. - [LOGIC] The next P4, if this spec verifies, may build a local paper scanner/daemon that writes to `wid_ops.db.paper_results`. - [LOGIC] The paper scanner may read public market metadata and paper quotes only. It must not use live keys, funds, deposits, orders, CLOB/signer flows, or account credentials. - [LOGIC] A later paper bot should use a distinct bot id such as `wid_conv_xae_f